Pedro Forquesato

Bio

I am an Associate Professor of Economics in the School of Economics, Business and Accounting at the University of São Paulo (FEA-USP) and lead researcher at LabPub.

Previously, I was a post-doctoral researcher at University of São Paulo (2018-2019) and Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (2016-2018), where I also earned my Doctorate in Economics in 2016. In 2014 I was a visiting scholar at Harvard Kennedy School of Government. You can find more detailed information about my professional activities in my [Lattes CV] or [Google Scholar profile].

My research interests are in the field of political and public sector economics. Currently, I am involved in projects studying patronage and the efficiency of municipal bureaucracy, as well as studying characteristics of taxation in low-income and middle-income countries.

As hobbies, I like rowing, literature, and chess. I have a wonderful wife and a cute young son.

Contact

pforquesato [at] usp [dot] br
Avenida Professor Luciano Gualberto, 908
FEA 2 Building, 217. University of São Paulo
São Paulo, SP 05508-010
Brazil

Teaching

In my five years at USP, I have taught classes in all areas of economics, from history of economic thought to game theory. In the graduate program at USP I have taught Econometrics II (non-linear estimation methods), Econometrics I (linear regression, instrumental variables and panel data models) and Statistics and Probability, for the mandatory core sequence, and Public Economics as an elective. In 2025, I teach Intro to Microeconomics and Game Theory in Portuguese, and Public Economics in English, all at the undergraduate level.

Current courses with online content

Public Economics (EAE1234): (2022-) An undergraduate course in public economics for advanced students, covering taxation, social insurance, and welfare programs (in English).

Teoria dos Jogos (EAE1301): (2024-) An undergraduate course in game theory, covering static and dynamic games of complete, imperfect, and incomplete information (PT-BR).

Research

Working papers and published articles

Who Benefits from Political Connections in Brazilian Municipalities. Under the (empirically supported) assumption that in close elections the result of the election is as good as random, I estimate a causal forest to identify heterogeneity in the conditional average treatment effect of being affiliated to the party of the winning mayor on public employment. Presentations: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (July, 2022), LACEA Annual Meeting (November, 2022), Brazilian Econometric Society (December, 2022). [Slides] [Video].

To the Victor Belongs the Spoils? Party Membership and Public Sector Employment in Brazil, with Fernanda Brollo and Juan Carlos Gozzi. We analyze how parties winning a mayoral election affects the number of their affiliates in the municipal bureaucracy, using close races in Brazil. We find an increase of 40% in the number of members of the winning party working in the municipal bureaucracy. Na mídia: [Nexo Jornal].

Social norms of work ethic and incentives in organizations. I model how incentive choice by firms and cultural values of work effort affect each other. Intuitively, firms will choose steeper incentives when agents are willing to engage in high effort, and conversely, intergenerational transmission of work values will be more profitable when incentives are higher powered. Published at: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, vol. 128 (2016) [Preprint].

Progressivity, distortions, and impacts of the Brazilian tax and benefit system: microsimulation results, with Ana Bottega, João Francisco Cabral, Rikelme Duarte, and Fabiana Rocha. We present a new open-access tax-benefit microsimulation model for Brazil, constructed within the already consolidated EUROMOD family of models. BRASMOD, as our model is called, is the first open-access large-scale model of this type to be constructed for Brazil. We apply the model to present new and updated measures of the government role in inequality for the Brazilian economy. [Access to BRASMOD].

The male breadwinner norm in Brazil, with Fabiana Rocha and Kauany Souza. Published at: Economics Bulletin, Volume 43, Issue 4, pages 1759-1770 (2023).

O Recadastramento Biométrico Reduz Participação Política?, with Pedro Rodrigues. Published at: Estudos Econômicos, vol. 53.3 (2023).

Non-academic writing

Policy briefs and technical reports

O Valor Marginal dos Fundos Públicos do Programa Bolsa Família, with Dimitri Maturano, Emilly Meneses, Rayne Santos e Thaynara Nogueira. Nota Técnica #2, LabPub, 03/2025.

O Valor Marginal dos Fundos Públicos do Programa Estratégia Saúde da Família, with Dimitri Maturano, Emilly Meneses, and Rayne Santos. Nota Técnica #1, LabPub, 08/2024.

Considerações sobre o efeito distributivo e a perda arrecadatória de um reajuste da tabela do IRPF, with Ana Bottega and Luiza Nassif Pires. Notas de Política Econômica nº34, Made/USP, 10/03/2023. (PT-BR).

Revisão Periódica de Gastos: Uma Breve Discussão, with Camily Vieira and Fabiana Rocha. Boletim Informações Fipe, 05/2023. (PT-BR).

Consórcios Intermunicipais na Formulação de Políticas Públicas Locais, with Natan Cuel. Boletim Informações Fipe, 01/2022. (PT-BR).

Opinion writing

A economia das privatizações e parcerias público-privadas. Jornal da USP, 04/07/2024. (PT-BR)

Por um novo arcabouço fiscal-orçamentário, with Fabiana Rocha and Luis Meloni. Valor Econômico, 29/03/2023. (PT-BR) [img].

Cautela no reajuste da tabela do IRPF, with Fabiana Rocha. Valor Econômico, 06/10/2022. (PT-BR) [img].

O dilema de definir preços de derivados de petróleo. Valor Econômico, 15/06/2022. (PT-BR) [img].

Atenção aos gastos tributários, with Fabiana Rocha and Luis Meloni. Valor Econômico, 03/02/2022. (PT-BR) [img].

Para entender um pouco sobre os paraísos fiscais, with Fabiana Rocha. Valor Econômico, 08/11/2021. (PT-BR) [img].

Afinal, a taxação de dividendos reduz o investimento?, with Fabiana Rocha and Luis Meloni. Jornal da USP, 19/07/2021. (PT-BR).

Created by Pedro Forquesato. Last updated: April, 2025.